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Sheikh Hasina’s Economic Success and Its Political Consequences in Bangladesh

New Delhi: Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is reeling from the unexpected upheaval that unfolded on August 5, when she was forced to seek refuge in India amid widespread protests that paralyzed the country. Both the Bangladesh Army and Police stood by as the unrest spiraled out of control, leading to her sudden departure.

Now, three days later, Sheikh Hasina finds herself at Hindon Air Force Base near Delhi, with no immediate plans to move to another country. Safe and secure in India, she is still grappling with the reality of her ousting—an event made all the more shocking by the fact that, under her leadership, Bangladesh had surged ahead to become the second-largest economy in the Indian subcontinent, surpassing Pakistan back in 2016.

India, meanwhile, is keeping a close watch on the situation in Bangladesh. The Indian government has reached out to Bangladesh’s military leadership, seeking to restore stability in the country. Of particular concern is the safety of Hindu minorities and Awami League supporters, who have been targeted in the ongoing violence. India’s focus now is on assessing the interim government in Bangladesh and whether the military will keep radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh in check—both of which have strong ties to Pakistan and international jihadist networks.

India has fortified its borders with Bangladesh, with the BSF and Assam Rifles on high alert, but the sudden fall of democratic governance in Bangladesh has raised alarm. The Modi government is deeply concerned about the implications of Sheikh Hasina’s misjudgment of her popularity and the possible influence of external actors seeking regime change. Given the political instability in neighboring countries like Pakistan, Maldives, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Nepal, India is vigilant to ensure that this turmoil does not spill over into its own territory.

A senior Cabinet Minister highlighted the broader context of global instability, stressing that India is facing a turbulent period. “We are down but not out in Bangladesh. But Indians must understand that global turmoil—whether in Iran, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, the UK, or France—will impact us too. PM Modi is doing his utmost to keep things stable, despite the divisive agenda of the Opposition INDI alliance. There’s a storm ahead, and we must stand united.”

India’s resolve is evident from External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s upcoming visit to the Maldives, where he is set to launch several projects, underscoring India’s importance in the region. Although India is prepared to work with Bangladesh Army Chief Gen Waker-us-Zaman, it is closely monitoring the situation in Dhaka, wary of any shift towards China or Islamist influence, which would be of grave concern to Raisina Hill.

Political Islam has long been a tool for seizing power in the Middle East, and its growing influence in the Indian subcontinent, particularly through Pakistan’s strategic maneuvers, is alarming. India was aware of efforts by the US and the UK to destabilize Sheikh Hasina’s government for years, and while it is ready to cooperate with the interim administration in Dhaka, it remains steadfast in protecting the interests of minorities and its own strategic interests. The Modi government has anticipated this crisis in Bangladesh for some time and has contingency plans in place to manage the fallout.

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